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Tampa Bay BuccaneersBauer Sharp
#84 · TE · 6' 4" · 246 lb · 1 games
Stats updated: Oct 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 21.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBauer Sharp isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After logging single-digit snaps on offense in each of the first six games of the season, Sharp appears to have firmly supplanted Ko Kieft as the Buccaneers' No. 3 tight end behind Cade Otton and Payne Durham. Sharp played a quarter of the snaps in a Week 7 win over the Buccaneers before bumping up to a season-high 32 percent share during Sunday's victory. The rookie sixth-round pick out of LSU will likely continue to be utilized mainly as a blocker; he's drawn just one target (a 21-yard reception) while running only nine total routes so far this season.
Verdict
vs 20.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line95supports it
Consistency100supports it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
21.6 REC YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 21.0 · L10 21.0 · med 21.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 21.0 · ceil 21.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 51 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 101 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 201 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Season1 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 20.5Current | 100% | 1/1 | |
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 |
Situational splits
Over 20.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Next matchup — @ CHI
Nov 9, 2026
12thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
CHI allows 27.9 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 15 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 1 games, Bauer Sharp has gone over 20.5 REC YDS 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. CHI has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 12th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (27.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.