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Pittsburgh SteelersBen Skowronek
#15 · WR · 6' 3" · 224 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Dec 7, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 11.5 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 12.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsWarm overFireFactor 32/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
11.1 REC YDS
L5 9.4 · L10 11.5 · med 13.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 21.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Last 206 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Season6 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 12.5Current | 67% | 4/6 | |
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 |
Situational splits
Over 12.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away100%3/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Rico Dowdle out+8.3 REC YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
15.7 REC YDS
100% over 12.5
With (3g)
7.3 REC YDS
33% over 12.5
Last matchup — @ BAL
Dec 7, 2025
11thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
BAL allows 44.5 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 65 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 6 games, Ben Skowronek has gone over 12.5 REC YDS 4 of 6 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. BAL has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 11th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (44.5 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 8.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.