Los Angeles Rams

Blake Corum Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Blake Corum has gone over 0.5 REC in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Michigan
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 0.8 REC · our line

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OutBlake Corum isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Corum, a 2024 third-round pick, did little as a rookie but carved out a notable role in 2025. While suiting up for all 17 regular-season games last year, Corum rushed 145 times for 746 yards and six touchdowns. He remained a limited contributor as a receiver, however, totaling just eight catches for 36 yards. Corum is arguably the most explosive runner in Los Angeles' backfield, but Williams remains entrenched as the lead option due to his three-down skill set. Even in a complementary role, Corum projects to remain productive and would carry significant upside if an opportunity for a larger workload emerged.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line57neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.1 REC(×0.95 context)

L5 1.2 · L10 0.8 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2016 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Season16 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	50%	8/16
	19%	3/16
	6%	1/16
	0%	0/16

Last 16 games — REC per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away50%5/10Low

Days since last game

3+ days53%8/15Low

Last matchup — @ SEA

Jan 25, 2026

1stof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

SEA allows 2.8 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 41 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Blake Corum has gone over 0.5 REC 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SEA has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 1st-most REC of 32 teams (2.8 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.