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Kansas City ChiefsBrashard Smith
#24 · RB · 5' 10" · 196 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- SMU
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 14.2 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBrashard Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Kenneth Walker saw a heavy workload in the win, while rookie Emmett Johnson recorded eight carries as his backup. Smith was a non-factor on offense, logging just three snaps on special teams. The backfield arrangement isn't expected to change while Walker and Johnson are healthy.
Verdict
vs 2.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 79% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line79supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
18.2 RUSH YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 15.2 · L10 14.2 · med 7.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.4 · ceil 21.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 109 games
78%over
7 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 45%–94%Last 209 games
78%over
7 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 45%–94%Season9 games
78%over
7 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 45%–94%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 2.5Current | 78% | 7/9 | |
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away100%3/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days75%6/8Low
Next matchup — @ MIA
Sep 27, 2026
22ndof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
MIA allows 41.2 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Brashard Smith has gone over 2.5 RUSH YDS 7 of 9 decided times (78%) — versus 78% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 22nd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (41.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 18.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 3.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.4%
Best Over
BetMGM-110
-3.5% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-105
-3.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+28.5%
Our model puts the over at 79.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 78%.