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Detroit LionsBrock Wright
#89 · TE · 6' 5" · 254 lb · 5 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 5 of these 5 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 19.4 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsBlazing overFireFactor 86/100· model 99% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line95supports it
Consistency22argues against it
Projection
21.3 REC YDS(×1.08 context)
L5 19.4 · L10 19.4 · med 23.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 8.8 · ceil 28.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 105 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 205 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Season5 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 100% | 5/5 | |
| 100% | 5/5 | ||
| 100% | 5/5 | ||
| 100% | 5/5 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%3/3Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%4/4Low
Next matchup — vs NYJ
Sep 27, 2026
25thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
NYJ allows 16.7 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 5 games, Brock Wright has gone over 0.5 REC YDS 5 of 5 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. NYJ has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 25th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (16.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 9.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 6.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.9%
Best Over
DraftKings-105
-4.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-4.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+50.0%
Our model puts the over at 99.1% vs the market's no-vig 49.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (6.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.