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New Orleans SaintsBryce Lance Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Bryce Lance has gone over 3.5 REC in 0 of his last 1 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- North Dakota State
- Experience
- Rookie
Linepays more
Receptions · season avg 3.0 REC · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receptions (REC)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutBryce Lance isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
With Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) on injured reserve and Chris Olave in and out of the game multiple times Sunday, Lance played 62 of 90 offensive snaps against Detroit. He ran 45 routes on Tyler Slough's 63 dropbacks and looks like the clear WR3 for New Orleans while Tyson recovers from a severe hamstring strain. However, Lance is deep down the list for opportunities and touches behind Olave, Juwan Johnson, Travis Etienne and Devaughn Vele, giving him minimal fantasy appeal outside of dynasty formats.
Verdict
vs 3.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 35% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency100supports it
Projection
3.1 REC(×1.03 context)
L5 3.0 · L10 3.0 · med 3.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 3.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 51 game
0%over
0 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%Last 101 game
0%over
0 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%Last 201 game
0%over
0 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%Season1 game
0%over
0 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%Situational splits
Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away0%0/1Low
Next matchup — vs LV
Sep 27, 2026
31stof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
LV allows 1.9 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 1 games, Bryce Lance has gone over 3.5 REC 0 of 1 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. LV has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 31st-most REC of 32 teams (1.9 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.
More Bryce Lance research
Bryce Lance — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Lance Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Lance Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Lance Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.