Miami Dolphins

Caleb Douglas Targets

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Caleb Douglas has gone over 4.5 TGT in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas Tech
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 5.0 TGT · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Caleb Douglas's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Ankle Not Specified

After turning heads with a 5-94-0 receiving line on seven targets in the Dolphins' season-opening loss to the Raiders, Douglas was limited to two catches for 19 yards on three targets while playing 85 percent of the Dolphins' offensive snaps in Week 2 before the ankle injury forced him out late in the fourth quarter. The rookie third-round pick is expected to be evaluated further over the next few days before the Dolphins gain more clarity on his status heading into Sunday's matchup with the Chiefs.

Verdict

vs 4.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 4/100· model 47% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line47neutral

Consistency33argues against it

Projection

4.5 TGT(×0.92 context)

L5 5.0 · L10 5.0 · med 5.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.8 · ceil 6.2

Matchup

small sample

Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	2/2
	100%	2/2
	50%	1/2
4.5Current	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — TGT per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/1Low

Next matchup — vs KC

Sep 27, 2026

22ndof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

KC allows 5.2 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Caleb Douglas has gone over 4.5 TGT 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 22nd-most TGT of 32 teams (5.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.