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Chicago BearsCaleb Williams
#18 · QB · 6' 1" · 226 lb · 19 games
Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 240.0 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCaleb Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Williams was a standout during the offseason program after he took multiple steps forward under Johnson's tutelage last season. While his completion percentage dipped from 62.5 percent as a rookie to 58.1 percent in 2025, Williams' touchdowns (27), touchdown rate (4.8 percent), adjusted yards per attempt (7.3) and yards per completion (11.9) all saw significant boosts. He was also sacked just 24 times after absorbing a league-high 68 sacks as a 2024 rookie. Williams certainly has MVP aspirations headed into his third pro season at just 24 years old.
Verdict
vs 238.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 74% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line74supports it
Consistency64supports it
Projection
286.2 PASS YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 282.0 · L10 242.4 · med 240.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 201.4 · ceil 282.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2019 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Season19 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 238.5Current | 53% | 10/19 | |
| 47% | 9/19 | ||
| 47% | 9/19 | ||
| 47% | 9/19 |
Situational splits
Over 238.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%6/10Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%10/18Medium
Last matchup — vs LAR
Jan 18, 2026
16thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
LAR allows 219.4 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 22 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Caleb Williams has gone over 238.5 PASS YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 16th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (219.4 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 52.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.