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Tennessee TitansCam Ward Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Cam Ward has gone over 7.5 RUSH YDS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Miami
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 9.8 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCam Ward isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The second-year QB couldn't get much going through the air against Philly's stingy secondary, but Ward accounted for both his team's touchdowns with one-yard scores in the first and third quarters -- matching his rushing TD total from his rookie campaign. Ward doesn't appear to be taking a step forward as a passer, however, and through two weeks he has just 323 passing yards, a 61.5 percent completion rate and one touchdown, although he has avoided committing any turnovers so far in 2026. Ward will look to be a little sharper through the air in a Week 3 road tilt against the Giants.
Verdict
vs 7.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
9.0 RUSH YDS(×0.84 context)
L5 9.8 · L10 13.6 · med 8.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.8 · ceil 17.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2018 games
44%over
8 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 25%–66%Season18 games
44%over
8 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 25%–66%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61% | 11/18 | ||
| 61% | 11/18 | ||
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 7.5Current | 44% | 8/18 | |
| 39% | 7/18 | ||
| 33% | 6/18 | ||
| 28% | 5/18 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home64%7/11Low
Away14%1/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%8/17Medium
Next matchup — @ NYG
Sep 27, 2026
29thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NYG allows 6.5 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Cam Ward has gone over 7.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 44% across the full season. NYG has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 29th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (6.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 11.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.
More Cam Ward research
Cam Ward — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Ward Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Ward Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Ward Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.