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Tennessee TitansCarnell Tate
#14 · WR · 6' 2" · 192 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
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- Ohio State
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Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 32.5 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCarnell Tate isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Tate's five targets paced the Titans, but eight different members of the team drew targets on a day Cam Ward attempted just 20 passes. It's become evident that Tennessee would prefer to hide Ward rather than highlight him, and therefore the offense is going to have a really tough time supporting any pass catchers as reliable fantasy starters. Tate has a measly seven catches for 65 scoreless yards on 11 targets through two career regular-season games. He won't be an exciting fantasy bet next Sunday against the Giants.
Verdict
vs 37.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 12% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line12argues against it
Consistency72supports it
Projection
29.7 REC YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 32.5 · L10 32.5 · med 32.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 29.2 · ceil 35.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 37.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 0% | 0/2 | ||
| 0% | 0/2 | ||
| 0% | 0/2 |
Situational splits
Over 37.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/1Low
Next matchup — @ NYG
Sep 27, 2026
29thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NYG allows 31.3 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 2 games, Carnell Tate has gone over 37.5 REC YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NYG has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 29th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (31.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 5.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (39.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.