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Chicago BearsCase Keenum
#11 · QB · 6' 1" · 220 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Oct 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Houston
- Experience
- 15 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 177.5 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCase Keenum isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
It seems Keenum and Bagent would each have a 50-50 shot at starting Sunday if Williams isn't cleared to play, with head coach Ben Johnson saying Friday "we have two guys that are equally qualified" in reference to Keenum and Bagent. Keenum was the backup for each of the Bears' last two games, though he did take over in the fourth quarter of Chicago's Week 5 loss to Green Bay after Bagent threw his second pick of the game in the third quarter. Keenum was the starter and led the Bears to a Week 3 victory over the Eagles, when he completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns while adding six yards and a score on four carries.
Verdict
vs 177.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency35argues against it
Projection
188.2 PASS YDS(×1.08 context)
L5 177.5 · L10 177.5 · med 177.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 135.8 · ceil 219.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 177.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 |
Situational splits
Over 177.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/1Low
Next matchup — @ ATL
Oct 18, 2026
5thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
ATL allows 261.4 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 2 games, Case Keenum has gone over 177.5 PASS YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 5th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (261.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 69.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.