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Dallas CowboysCeeDee Lamb
#88 · WR · 6' 2" · 198 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 100.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCeeDee Lamb isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
QB Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' passing game couldn't get much going against Arizona's defense throughout Week 8, and Lamb thus put together one of his least productive outings of the campaign. Despite the very modest performance for his standard, Lamb still has a standout 60-709-6 line on 92 targets through the first eight contests, setting himself up nicely for his sixth consecutive 1,000-yard campaign. He next takes aim at the stumbling Colts next Sunday on the road.
Verdict
vs 73.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line70supports it
Consistency17argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
103.2 REC YDS(×1.11 context)
L5 100.6 · L10 100.0 · med 74.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 60.4 · ceil 144.8
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 73.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 73.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — @ IND
Nov 8, 2026
27thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
IND allows 37.3 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 28 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, CeeDee Lamb has gone over 73.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. IND has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 27th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.3 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 49.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 82.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
Caesars-114
-6.3% EV
Best Under
Caesars-115
-6.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+19.9%
Our model puts the over at 69.9% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (82.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.