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Dallas CowboysCeeDee Lamb
#88 · WR · 6' 2" · 198 lb · 14 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 14 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 90.7 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCeeDee Lamb isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Lamb led the Cowboys in receptions and receiving yards by a wide margin, and he also set the pace in targets with one more than George Pickens. Lamb repeatedly victimized the Commanders' secondary throughout the afternoon, and his touchdowns came from three and 24 yards out in the first and fourth quarters, respectively. The 2020 first-round pick has cobbled together a 13-197-3 line over his first two games, and he'll continue to play a pivotal role in a Week 3 home matchup against the Ravens next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 97.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency42neutral
Projection
91.1 REC YDS(×1.00 context)
L5 81.0 · L10 86.4 · med 80.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 60.0 · ceil 112.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 97.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 |
Situational splits
Over 97.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
Next matchup — vs BAL
Sep 27, 2026
8thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
BAL allows 56.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, CeeDee Lamb has gone over 97.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. BAL has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 8th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (56.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 31.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 84.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-4.2%
Our model puts the over at 45.8% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (84.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.