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Cincinnati BengalsChase Brown
#30 · RB · 5' 10" · 210 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Illinois
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 48.6 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutChase Brown isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Brown led the Bengals in rushing with an efficient performance, and he finished with his best yardage total on the ground since Week 3. Brown's very busy day as a receiver was second only to his 11-catch, 71-yard effort against the Jaguars in Week 4, and his lost fumble, his second of the season, came early in the fourth quarter and led to a Titans touchdown. Brown is in line to fill his usual voluminous dual role in a Week 9 international matchup against the Falcons in Madrid next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 54.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency30argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
48.8 RUSH YDS(×1.04 context)
L5 40.8 · L10 48.6 · med 55.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 39.0 · ceil 60.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 54.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 54.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — @ ATL
Nov 8, 2026
10thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
ATL allows 51.7 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Chase Brown has gone over 54.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 10th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (51.7 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 20.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 49.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-110
-4.5% EV
Model vs market (over)-4.0%
Our model puts the over at 46.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (50 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.