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Washington CommandersChig Okonkwo
#85 · TE · 6' 3" · 238 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Maryland
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 37.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutChig Okonkwo isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
With Zach Ertz (knee), who drew 72 targets in 13 regular-season contests in 2025, no longer in the mix, Okonkwo tops a Washington TE depth chart that also includes returnees John Bates and Ben Sinnott, a duo that combined for 29 targets last season. During his fourth and final campaign with the Titans, Okonkwo put up a 56/560/6 receiving line on 79 targets across 17 regular-season outings. Given that the 2022 fourth-rounder has already developed chemistry with a signal-caller who Selby notes often likes to get tight ends involved in the offense, Okonkwo is a candidate to see an uptick in production in his new locale in 2026. It's a context in which the tight feels like he "can finally just unleash," while operating as one of Daniels' key pass-catching options along with top WR Terry McLaurin.
Verdict
vs 41.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency19argues against it
Projection
37.5 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 32.6 · L10 40.6 · med 45.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 25.0 · ceil 53.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 41.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 |
Situational splits
Over 41.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt out+10.6 REC YDS when he sits
Without (7g)
43.1 REC YDS
57% over 41.5
With (7g)
32.6 REC YDS
43% over 41.5
Rachaad White out-14.5 REC YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
27.5 REC YDS
0% over 41.5
With (10g)
42.0 REC YDS
70% over 41.5
Last matchup — @ JAX
Jan 4, 2026
6thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
JAX allows 29.3 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 36 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Chig Okonkwo has gone over 41.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. JAX has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 6th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (29.3 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 18.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.