San Francisco 49ers

Christian Kirk Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Christian Kirk has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas A&M
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.3 REC TD · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Christian Kirk's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Calf Not Specified

With Ricky Pearsall (knee, IR) out for the season, the 49ers also were without Mike Evans (quadriceps) and rookie second-round pick De'Zhaun Stribling (hamstring) on Monday, though both Stribling and Kirk appeared to be operating at at least three-quarters speed. Kirk now has missed a week of practice, but his activity level to begin this week indicates he's likely to mix back into drills in the near future.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

Cool underFireFactor 34/100· model 63% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line63supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.5 REC TD(×1.05 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Season10 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	30%	3/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%1/4Low

Away33%2/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%3/9Low

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Mac Jones out

Without (7g)

0.3 REC TD

29% over 0.5

With (3g)

0.3 REC TD

33% over 0.5

Deebo Samuel out+0.5 REC TD when he sits

Without (6g)

0.5 REC TD

50% over 0.5

With (4g)

0.0 REC TD

0% over 0.5

Last matchup — @ NE

Jan 18, 2026

16thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

NE allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Christian Kirk has gone over 0.5 REC TD 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 30% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 16th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 30%.