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San Francisco 49ersChristian McCaffrey
#23 · RB · 5' 11" · 210 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Stanford
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 55.6 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutChristian McCaffrey isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
McCaffrey got banged up in San Francisco's Week 7 loss to the Falcons, but a Week 8 bye allowed his hamstring to heal, and the star running back handled 20 touches Sunday while scoring twice to bring his season total to 10 touchdowns. He capped San Francisco's opening drive with a one-yard touchdown run and added a 12-yard touchdown catch in the second quarter. Rookie third-round pick Kaelon Black led the 49ers with 70 rushing yards on 11 carries, but McCaffrey remains the lead back heading into a Week 10 trip to Dallas, during which CMC will try to extend a seven-game touchdown streak.
Verdict
vs 63.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency48neutral
Matchup50neutral
Projection
62.2 RUSH YDS(×1.14 context)
L5 59.6 · L10 55.6 · med 64.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 41.6 · ceil 68.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 63.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 63.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — @ DAL
Nov 15, 2026
17thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
DAL allows 45.6 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 20 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Christian McCaffrey has gone over 63.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 17th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (45.6 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 17.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 62.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
BetRivers-112
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+5.4%
Our model puts the over at 55.4% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (62.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.