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Green Bay PackersChristian Watson
#9 · WR · 6' 4" · 215 lb · 11 games
Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- North Dakota State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 58.8 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 54.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 50% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency21argues against it
Projection
57.1 REC YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 56.8 · L10 56.2 · med 47.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 36.0 · ceil 85.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2011 games
45%over
5 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%Season11 games
45%over
5 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 54.5Current | 45% | 5/11 | |
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 |
Situational splits
Over 54.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%4/10Low
Last matchup — @ CHI
Jan 11, 2026
8thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
CHI allows 47.6 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 64 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Christian Watson has gone over 54.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 45% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 8th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (47.6 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 27.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.