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Carolina PanthersChuba Hubbard
#30 · RB · 6' 1" · 210 lb · 15 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 13 of these 15 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma State
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 40.5 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutChuba Hubbard isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Hubbard once again led the ground attack, outpacing backfield mate Jonathon Brooks (groin), who exited the game in the fourth quarter, by seven carries. Hubbard's most fantasy-friendly contribution of the afternoon came as a receiver, however, as he was on the other end of Bryce Young's first touchdown pass of the afternoon early in the first quarter. Hubbard has logged just 22 total carries over his first two games, but he's turned those into 102 yards and a touchdown and will be due for a larger workload Week 3 on the road against the Browns if Brooks is sidelined.
Verdict
vs 38.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency16argues against it
Projection
36.6 RUSH YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 34.0 · L10 35.9 · med 31.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 24.8 · ceil 53.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 38.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 |
Situational splits
Over 38.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%6/14Low
Next matchup — @ CLE
Sep 27, 2026
17thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CLE allows 44.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Chuba Hubbard has gone over 38.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 47% across the full season. CLE has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 17th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (44.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 20.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.