Loading…
Chicago BearsColston Loveland
#84 · TE · 6' 6" · 241 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Michigan
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 51.0 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutColston Loveland isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Loveland was quiet for most of the night but got free for a 38-yard catch in the final minute to set up Cairo Santos' game-winning 38-yard field goal on the game's final play. The 2025 first-round pick has recorded at least 54 receiving yards in five of the past six games, having bounced back from a slow start to his sophomore season during which Loveland compiled just 34 yards through three games. Loveland will try to keep building momentum in Week 11 against the Saints following Chicago's Week 10 bye.
Verdict
vs 52.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency38argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
56.9 REC YDS(×1.04 context)
L5 55.0 · L10 51.0 · med 61.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 31.0 · ceil 65.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 106 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Last 206 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Season6 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Situational splits
Over 52.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days80%4/5Low
Next matchup — vs TB
Nov 9, 2026
24thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
TB allows 22.4 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 20 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 6 games, Colston Loveland has gone over 52.5 REC YDS 4 of 6 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. TB has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 24th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (22.4 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 19.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 53.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-109
-4.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+12.6%
Our model puts the over at 62.6% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (53.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.