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Las Vegas RaidersConnor Heyward
#83 · FB · 6' 0" · 230 lb · 4 games
Stats updated: Jan 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Michigan State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 8.8 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 66% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
8.9 RUSH YDS
L5 8.8 · L10 8.8 · med 3.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.6 · ceil 12.8
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 4/4 | ||
| 100% | 4/4 | ||
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 3.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 25% | 1/4 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away100%1/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%2/3Low
Last matchup — vs BAL
Jan 5, 2026
30thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
BAL allows 37.9 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 35 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 4 games, Connor Heyward has gone over 3.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. BAL has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 30th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (37.9 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 10.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.