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Seattle SeahawksCooper Kupp Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Cooper Kupp has gone over 3.5 REC in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Eastern Washington
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 3.5 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCooper Kupp isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Kupp wasn't very productive, but that was the case for all of Seattle's wideouts aside from Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who dominated with nine catches for 155 yards and one touchdown. The only other Seahawks player to log more than Kupp's two targets was Rashid Shaheed, who put up a 3-35-0 line on six targets. Through two weeks, Kupp has tallied a modest four receptions for 55 yards. With Smith-Njigba dominating the targets in Seattle's passing game, Kupp may struggle to put up consistent production this season.
Verdict
vs 3.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency17argues against it
Projection
4.1 REC(×1.16 context)
L5 3.8 · L10 3.3 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 5.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2017 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Season17 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 17/17 | ||
| 94% | 16/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 3.5Current | 41% | 7/17 | |
| 29% | 5/17 | ||
| 18% | 3/17 | ||
| 6% | 1/17 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away33%3/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%6/16Medium
Next matchup — @ WSH
Sep 27, 2026
5thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
WSH allows 4.5 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Cooper Kupp has gone over 3.5 REC 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 41% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 5th-most REC of 32 teams (4.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 2.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 41.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 58.2%
Best Over
DraftKings+126
-5.6% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-160
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+13.1%
Our model puts the over at 54.9% vs the market's no-vig 41.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (2.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.
More Cooper Kupp research
Cooper Kupp — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Kupp Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Kupp Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Kupp Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.