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Philadelphia EaglesDallas Goedert
#88 · TE · 6' 5" · 256 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- South Dakota State
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 50.8 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutDallas Goedert isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Goedert finished one catch and 11 yards shy of Makai Lemon's team-leading totals in Joe Milton's first start for the Eagles. Both of Goedert's touchdowns this season came back in Week 1, and the Eagles have since changed QBs twice. Goedert's best result in the three games started by Tanner McKee was a six-catch, 61-yard outing, so the veteran TE has remained consistent even as the offense around him falls apart due to injuries. Milton, McKee and rookie fifth-round pick Cole Payton are all potential candidates to start in Week 11 against the Steelers after Philadelphia's Week 10 bye.
Verdict
vs 45.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency45neutral
Projection
48.2 REC YDS
L5 50.8 · L10 50.8 · med 48.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 36.4 · ceil 64.2
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Situational splits
Over 45.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%3/3Low
Away0%0/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Last matchup — @ WSH
Nov 1, 2026
1stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
WSH allows 52.4 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 10 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 5 games, Dallas Goedert has gone over 45.5 REC YDS 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 1st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (52.4 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 16.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 45.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+7.2%
Our model puts the over at 57.2% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (45.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.