Tennessee Titans

Daniel Bellinger Targets

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Daniel Bellinger has gone over 2.5 TGT in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: San Diego State
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 3.0 TGT · our line

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OutDaniel Bellinger isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Bellinger spent the last four seasons playing under offensive coordinator Brian Daboll with the Giants, making him one of Tennessee's most familiar additions to the new offensive scheme. While 2025 fourth-rounder Gunnar Helm is expected to handle plenty of receiving work following the departure of Chig Okonkwo (now with the Commanders), Bellinger's blocking ability makes him a natural fit for the heavier personnel packages Daboll is expected to employ. That familiarity, combined with the vacancy created by Okonkwo's departure, gives the 25-year-old a legitimate chance to earn consistent snaps with the Titans.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it

Projection vs line48neutral

Consistency49neutral

Projection

2.6 TGT(×0.90 context)

L5 2.6 · L10 3.0 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 4.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	7/7
	100%	7/7
2.5Current	57%	4/7
	43%	3/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Away60%3/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%3/6Low

Last matchup — vs DAL

Jan 4, 2026

15thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends

DAL allows 3.6 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 29 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 7 games, Daniel Bellinger has gone over 2.5 TGT 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 15th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.6 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.