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Houston TexansDare Ogunbowale
#33 · RB · 5 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 4.0 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDare Ogunbowale isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Even with David Montgomery (groin) and Jawhar Jordan (quadriceps) injured and inactive, Ogunbowale played just seven offensive snaps behind Woody Marks' 54. Ogunbowale can continue to be ignored in fantasy football.
Verdict
vs 3.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
3.5 RUSH YDS(×1.04 context)
L5 4.0 · L10 4.0 · med 3.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 9.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 3.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away100%1/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days25%1/4Low
Next matchup — @ CLE
Nov 15, 2026
2ndof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CLE allows 65.7 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 5 games, Dare Ogunbowale has gone over 3.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. CLE has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 2nd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (65.7 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.