Loading…
Los Angeles RamsDavis Allen
#87 · TE · 6' 6" · 253 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Clemson
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 21.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDavis Allen isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Coach Sean McVay said that due to the soft-tissue nature of the injury, they do not want to rush Allen back. The tight end was a prominent part of the Rams' 13-personnel offense during the 2025 season, drawing 33 targets for 24 receptions, 208 yards and three touchdowns over 17 regular-season games. The 25-year-old was also a prominent member of the trenches in the McVay scheme, logging additional offensive and special teams snaps that helped lead the team to its 12-5 record. Now in a contract year, when Allen does return, he is set to become a consistent contributor for the 2026 Rams.
Verdict
vs 20.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency18argues against it
Projection
25.1 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 21.6 · L10 21.0 · med 21.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 11.0 · ceil 31.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Last 209 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Season9 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 20.5Current | 56% | 5/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 |
Situational splits
Over 20.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days63%5/8Low
Last matchup — @ SEA
Dec 19, 2025
3rdof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
SEA allows 33.6 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 35 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Davis Allen has gone over 20.5 REC YDS 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. SEA has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 3rd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (33.6 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 10.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.