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Houston TexansDavis Mills
#10 · QB · 6' 4" · 225 lb · 4 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Stanford
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 214.0 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDavis Mills isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Mills has served as the Texans' QB2 for each of the past two seasons, but he started in three games during the 2025 season while Stroud was sidelined due to a concussion. Mills led the Texans to wins in all three of his starts, completing 59.5 percent of his passes for 719 yards, five touchdowns and one interception while turning seven carries into 38 yards and a score in that span. Stroud hasn't had the same kind of production over the past two years as he did in his rookie campaign in 2023, and he committed seven turnovers across Houston's two playoff games. If Stroud has a slow start to the 2026 season, then that could be enough for head coach DeMeco Ryans to turn the keys to the offense over to Mills.
Verdict
vs 213.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency46neutral
Projection
213.0 PASS YDS
L5 214.0 · L10 214.0 · med 213.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 146.6 · ceil 281.2
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 213.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 |
Situational splits
Over 213.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away100%1/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%2/3Low
Last matchup — vs BUF
Nov 21, 2025
32ndof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
BUF allows 169.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 20 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 4 games, Davis Mills has gone over 213.5 PASS YDS 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. BUF has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 32nd-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (169.0 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 69.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.