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Miami DolphinsDe'Von Achane
#28 · RB · 5' 9" · 191 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 14 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas A&M
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 82.1 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDe'Von Achane isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Achane racked up 23 touches after touching the ball 11 times in Week 1, but the speedster has struggled to find running room while consistently facing stacked boxes. He is averaging a meager 3.5 yards per rushing attempt heading into a Week 3 home game against the Chiefs, which is a departure from Achane's excellent efficiency in previous seasons, as he averaged 5.7 yards per carry last season and has a career mark of 5.6 YPC. Defenses are daring Malik Willis and Miami's underwhelming wide-receiver room to beat them, and Miami's offense hasn't been up to the task during the team's 0-2 start.
Verdict
vs 77.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency19argues against it
Projection
66.6 RUSH YDS(×0.86 context)
L5 66.8 · L10 89.6 · med 77.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 60.0 · ceil 120.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 77.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 |
Situational splits
Over 77.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home78%7/9Low
Away14%1/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
Next matchup — vs KC
Sep 27, 2026
14thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
KC allows 48.7 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, De'Von Achane has gone over 77.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. KC has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 14th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (48.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 40.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 59.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
Caesars-114
-6.2% EV
Best Under
Caesars-115
-6.4% EV
Model vs market (over)-10.6%
Our model puts the over at 39.3% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (59.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.