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San Francisco 49ersDemarcus Robinson
#11 · WR · 6' 1" · 202 lb · 13 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 11 of these 13 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Florida
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 35.6 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutDemarcus Robinson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Ankle Sprain
- Est. return:
- Oct 11, 2026
Shanahan noted that Robinson will most likely be placed on injured reserve, though the 49ers haven't finalized any decisions since the team can bring back only eight players from IR and already has a lengthy injury list two games into the season. Robinson had been expected to serve as a depth receiver for the 49ers, but injuries to Ricky Pearsall (knee), De'Zhaun Stribling (ankle) and Christian Kirk (calf) had opened up more playing time for the 32-year-old than anticipated through the first two weeks of the season. He produced a 5-84-1 line on six targets between wins over Rams and Dolphins to begin the campaign.
Verdict
vs 25.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 78% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)85supports it
Projection vs line78supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
50.3 REC YDS(×1.19 context)
L5 49.8 · L10 36.0 · med 32.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 21.2 · ceil 42.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2013 games
62%over
8 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 36%–82%Season13 games
62%over
8 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 36%–82%Situational splits
Over 25.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%8/12Low
Next matchup — vs ARI
Sep 27, 2026
9thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
ARI allows 54.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Demarcus Robinson has gone over 25.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 62% across the full season. ARI has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 9th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (54.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 24.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 26.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.5%
Best Over
DraftKings-110
-3.6% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-110
-5.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+27.3%
Our model puts the over at 77.8% vs the market's no-vig 50.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (26.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 62%.