Loading…
New England PatriotsDeMario Douglas
#3 · WR · 5' 8" · 185 lb · 15 games
Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Liberty
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 29.5 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDeMario Douglas isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The "most common grouping" Monday, according to Callahan, involved A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs out wide with Douglas in the slot. Kayshon Boutte mixed in at X receiver, and Brown moved around the formation. Right now, it sounds like the Patriots like Brown as the X, Doubs at the Z spot and Douglas working the middle of the field out of the slot. That leaves Mack Hollins, Efton Chism and Kyle Williams competing for sub-package snaps and rotational roles. Douglas played just 26.3 percent of the offensive snaps last regular season, but with Stefon Diggs out of the picture and Brown more of an outside prototype, Douglas could see his playing time come back up in 2026.
Verdict
vs 29.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
26.8 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 24.6 · L10 33.2 · med 33.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 6.8 · ceil 37.8
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 29.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 |
Situational splits
Over 29.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Rhamondre Stevenson out+34.0 REC YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
56.7 REC YDS
100% over 29.5
With (12g)
22.7 REC YDS
33% over 29.5
Last matchup — vs SEA
Feb 8, 2026
26thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
SEA allows 37.9 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 64 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, DeMario Douglas has gone over 29.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 47% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 26th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 26.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.