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New England PatriotsDeMario Douglas
#3 · WR · 5' 8" · 185 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Liberty
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 46.1 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutDeMario Douglas isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Most of his production came on a nifty 48-yard catch-and-run in the fourth quarter, as Douglas took a strike from Drake Maye along the sideline but then curled back toward the middle of the field and dashed the remaining 30 yards to the end zone while out-racing four Miami defenders. It was the fourth touchdown of the season for the fourth-year wideout, a new career high, and Douglas will take a 26-332-4 line on 37 targets through eight games into a Week 9 tilt against the Packers.
Verdict
vs 40.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency3argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
49.2 REC YDS(×0.96 context)
L5 53.0 · L10 46.1 · med 38.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 20.6 · ceil 73.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Last 207 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Season7 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Situational splits
Over 40.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%2/2Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — vs GB
Nov 8, 2026
14thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
GB allows 45.9 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 26 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, DeMario Douglas has gone over 40.5 REC YDS 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. GB has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 14th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (45.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 27.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 40.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-112
-5.4% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-112
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+5.6%
Our model puts the over at 55.6% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (40.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.