Cleveland Browns

Denzel Boston Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Denzel Boston has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 2 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Washington
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 1.0 REC TD · our line

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OutDenzel Boston isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Boston's big play was a 55-yard touchdown late in the third quarter to pull the Browns even with the Bucs at 16-16. The rookie wideout caught a deep crosser and spun off several would-be tackles and dashed to the end zone. It was Boston's second long touchdown in as many weeks to begin his pro career. Through two games, the second-round pick has seven catches for 154 yards and two scores on 11 targets. He's shaping up as a boom-or-bust fantasy WR4 headed into next Sunday's home date with the Panthers.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line64supports it

Consistency100supports it

Projection

0.9 REC TD(×0.92 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 1.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Last 102 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Last 202 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Season2 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	100%	2/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away100%2/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Next matchup — vs CAR

Sep 27, 2026

25thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

CAR allows 0.0 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Denzel Boston has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 2 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 25th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.