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Los Angeles ChargersDerius Davis
#12 · WR · 5' 8" · 165 lb · 5 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 3 of these 5 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- TCU
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 2.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDerius Davis isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Davis sustained an unspecified injury during the Chargers' 26-14 loss to the Cardinals in Week 1, but his full practice participation Wednesday puts the 2023 fourth-rounder on track to play against the Raiders on Sunday. Davis returned two kickoffs for 33 yards and recorded a tackle prior to his exit against Arizona.
Verdict
vs 0.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line40argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.7 REC YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 2.0 · L10 2.0 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 3.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days25%1/4Low
Next matchup — @ BUF
Sep 27, 2026
10thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
BUF allows 54.6 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 5 games, Derius Davis has gone over 0.5 REC YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. BUF has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 10th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (54.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.