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Cleveland BrownsDeshaun Watson
#4 · QB · 6' 3" · 223 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Clemson
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 225.8 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Deshaun Watson's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Concussion Concussion
With Watson, who is in the NFL's concussion protocol, in line to log back-to-back DNPs, the QB's status for Sunday's game against the Saints remains cloudy. In the event that Watson doesn't gain clearance to play this weekend, Shedeur Sanders will draw the start in his place.
Verdict
vs 221.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency52neutral
Projection
240.1 PASS YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 243.8 · L10 225.8 · med 221.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 158.6 · ceil 292.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 221.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 221.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — @ NO
Nov 8, 2026
21stof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NO allows 218.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Deshaun Watson has gone over 221.5 PASS YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NO has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 21st-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (218.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 65.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.