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New Orleans SaintsDevaughn Vele
#14 · WR · 6' 5" · 210 lb · 7 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 5 of these 7 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Utah
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 54.6 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDevaughn Vele isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Vele was able to remain a major part of the Saints' offensive attack, finishing second on the team in targets behind fellow wide receiver Chris Olave (10) in Week 2. The 28-year-old appears to have solidified himself as the team's No. 2 wide receiver with Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) on injured reserve, catching 12 of 16 targets for 133 yards and a touchdown over the first two games of the 2026 campaign. Vele will have a strong chance to keep up his hot start to the season when New Orleans faces the Raiders in Week 3.
Verdict
vs 42.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 74% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line74supports it
Consistency23argues against it
Projection
62.9 REC YDS(×1.07 context)
L5 67.0 · L10 54.6 · med 64.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 37.6 · ceil 69.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 42.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 |
Situational splits
Over 42.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — vs LV
Sep 27, 2026
26thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
LV allows 35.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Devaughn Vele has gone over 42.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. LV has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 26th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (35.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 25.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (42 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.