Loading…
New Orleans SaintsDevin Neal
#24 · RB · 5' 11" · 213 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Dec 14, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Kansas
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 37.0 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDevin Neal isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Neal dealt with an undisclosed issue during the spring but is past the injury and working alongside Kendre Miller with the Saints' second-team offense. The two are competing for roles behind Travis Etienne and Alvin Kamara in the New Orleans backfield.
Verdict
vs 28.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 38% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line38argues against it
Consistency13argues against it
Projection
38.5 RUSH YDS
L5 37.0 · L10 37.0 · med 28.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 21.2 · ceil 51.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 28.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 28.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/2Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Last matchup — vs CAR
Dec 14, 2025
18thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CAR allows 48.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 39 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, Devin Neal has gone over 28.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. CAR has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 18th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (48.5 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.