Loading…
New England PatriotsDrake Maye
#10 · QB · 6' 4" · 225 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- North Carolina
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 247.9 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDrake Maye isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
While he failed to reach 200 passing yards for the third time in eight games this season, Maye put together a very efficient performance as he produced multiple TDs for a fifth straight game. All three scores came in the second half as the QB rallied the Patriots from a 13-3 deficit, hitting Kyle Williams for a 43-yard score in the third quarter and DeMario Douglas for a 48-yard strike in the fourth, while running for a two-yard TD in between. Maye appears to have gotten his recklessness under control, committing just one turnover in the last four contests, and he'll take a 15:8 TD:INT on the season into a Week 9 clash with the Packers.
Verdict
vs 221.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 73% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line73supports it
Consistency57neutral
Projection
274.6 PASS YDS(×1.09 context)
L5 279.6 · L10 247.9 · med 221.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 199.0 · ceil 300.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 221.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 221.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — vs GB
Nov 8, 2026
28thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
GB allows 194.3 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 9 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Drake Maye has gone over 221.5 PASS YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. GB has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 28th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (194.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 64.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 229.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
Caesars-113
-5.9% EV
Best Under
Caesars-115
-6.3% EV
Model vs market (over)+23.1%
Our model puts the over at 73.0% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (229.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.