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Seattle SeahawksDrew Lock Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Drew Lock has gone over 7.5 RUSH YDS in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Missouri
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 6.5 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutDrew Lock isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Lock didn't make it too hard on himself, looking for superstar wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba early and often. The duo connected for an 82-yard score in the first quarter before later adding touchdowns of seven and 12 yards in the second half. Lock has tossed four touchdowns over the first two weeks, all of which have been to Smith-Njigba. The quarterback has completed 35 of 48 passes for 422 yards with four scores so far this season, and he could be asked to start another contest Week 3 versus the Commanders while Sam Darnold (hip) continues to recover.
Verdict
vs 7.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
6.5 RUSH YDS(×1.05 context)
L5 6.5 · L10 6.5 · med 6.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.6 · ceil 10.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Situational splits
Over 7.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/1Low
Next matchup — @ WSH
Sep 27, 2026
3rdof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
WSH allows 36.0 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 2 games, Drew Lock has gone over 7.5 RUSH YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 3rd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (36.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 7.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.2%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.8%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.4% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-110
-4.9% EV
Model vs market (over)-5.2%
Our model puts the over at 45.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (7.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Drew Lock research
Drew Lock — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Lock Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Lock Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Lock Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.