Cleveland Browns

Dylan Sampson Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Dylan Sampson has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Tennessee
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutDylan Sampson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Sampson was out-carried 11 to one by Quinshon Judkins, but the former has carved out a role as the preferred pass-catching back for Cleveland since returning from injured reserve in Week 7. Over the last two games, Sampson has turned 11 targets into nine catches for 94 yards while adding seven carries for 52 yards. Sampson will have some PPR fantasy appeal during weeks when the Browns are projected to trail on the scoreboard.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 87% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line87supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

0.1 REC TD(×0.93 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Season10 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	20%	2/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/3Low

Away29%2/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days22%2/9Low

Next matchup — @ NO

Nov 8, 2026

15thof 32 in REC TD allowed to running backs

NO allows 0.1 REC TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 13 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Dylan Sampson has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 20% across the full season. NO has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 15th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 20%.