New England Patriots

Efton Chism III Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Efton Chism III has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Eastern Washington
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.4 REC TD · our line

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OutEfton Chism III isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Chism was able to reel in exactly five passes for the second straight week, and he connected with quarterback Drake Maye for an eight-yard touchdown in the second quarter. The score was Chism's second of the year and first since Week 4. With A.J. Brown (knee) potentially set to miss the team's Week 10 matchup against the Lions, Chism may have a chance to operate in a prominent role again against Detroit's underwhelming secondary.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line62supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

0.5 REC TD(×1.04 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 105 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 205 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Season5 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	40%	2/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%2/4Low

Next matchup — @ DET

Nov 15, 2026

18thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

DET allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 24 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 5 games, Efton Chism III has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. DET has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 18th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.