New England Patriots

Eli Raridon Targets

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Eli Raridon has gone over 0.5 TGT in 2 of his last 2 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Notre Dame
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 1.0 TGT · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

QuestionableConfirm Eli Raridon's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Thigh Not Specified

Raridon exited the game after hauling in a 30-yard pass from Drake Maye. The catch that caused the tight end to enter the medical tent was his only target in the contest.

Verdict

vs 0.5 TGTTargets

Hot overFireFactor 54/100· model 64% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line64supports it

Consistency100supports it

Projection

0.9 TGT(×0.92 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 1.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 52 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Last 102 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Last 202 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Season2 games

100%over

2 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 34%–100%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	100%	2/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — TGT per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Away100%1/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Next matchup — @ JAX

Sep 27, 2026

28thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends

JAX allows 2.0 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Eli Raridon has gone over 0.5 TGT 2 of 2 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. JAX has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 28th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.