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Seattle SeahawksElijah Arroyo Targets
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Elijah Arroyo has gone over 2.5 TGT in 3 of his last 7 decided games (43%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Miami
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 2.9 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutElijah Arroyo isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Arroyo was on the field for just 15 of the team's 70 offensive snaps, but he was at least able to secure his first catch of the year in the victory. The tight end logged 13 snaps with the special-teams unit, and at this point, he doesn't have any fantasy appeal.
Verdict
vs 2.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency34argues against it
Projection
2.5 TGT(×0.96 context)
L5 2.6 · L10 2.9 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 3.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 107 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Last 207 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Season7 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 2.5Current | 43% | 3/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 | ||
| 0% | 0/7 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%2/6Low
Next matchup — @ WSH
Sep 27, 2026
7thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends
WSH allows 4.5 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Elijah Arroyo has gone over 2.5 TGT 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 7th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.
More Elijah Arroyo research
Elijah Arroyo — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Arroyo Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Arroyo Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Arroyo Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.