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Dallas CowboysEmari Demercado
#31 · RB · 5' 9" · 215 lb · 6 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 6 of these 6 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- TCU
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 33.3 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutEmari Demercado isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Demercado operated as the team's No. 2 option at running back Week 1 behind starter Javonte Williams, but he was limited to just five snaps on offense in the contest. Demercado was claimed off waivers by Dallas on Aug. 31, and his role could grow as he continues to get more comfortable in the Cowboys offense moving forward, especially with Malik Davis (hip) out for the season.
Verdict
vs 10.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 78% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line78supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
35.4 RUSH YDS(×1.18 context)
L5 38.4 · L10 33.3 · med 20.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 8.0 · ceil 64.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 106 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Last 206 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Season6 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Situational splits
Over 10.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away100%3/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days80%4/5Low
Next matchup — vs BAL
Sep 27, 2026
16thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
BAL allows 46.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 6 games, Emari Demercado has gone over 10.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 6 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. BAL has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 16th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (46.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 28.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 10.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-110
-4.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+28.5%
Our model puts the over at 78.5% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (10.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.