Kansas City Chiefs

Emmett Johnson Carries

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Emmett Johnson has gone over 4.5 CAR in 1 of his last 1 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Nebraska
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 8.0 CAR · PrizePicks line

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OutEmmett Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

"As it goes on, I think you get a nice balance between those two (Johnson and Kenneth Walker), and it keeps them even fresher as the season goes on," Reid said. Johnson handled just four touches on offense in Sunday night's overtime win against the Colts, but he turned them into 35 yards and has looked like a legitimate playmaker two weeks into the 2026 campaign. He's solidified himself as one of the premier fantasy bench stashes at running back behind Walker.

Verdict

vs 4.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 94% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line94supports it

Consistency100supports it

Projection

8.6 CAR(×1.08 context)

L5 8.0 · L10 8.0 · med 8.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 8.0 · ceil 8.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 51 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 101 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 201 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Season1 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
4.5Current	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1

Last 1 games — CAR per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Next matchup — @ MIA

Sep 27, 2026

22ndof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

MIA allows 10.2 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 1 games, Emmett Johnson has gone over 4.5 CAR 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 22nd-most CAR of 32 teams (10.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CAR have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.