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Denver BroncosEvan Engram
#1 · TE · 6' 3" · 240 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ole Miss
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 29.2 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutEvan Engram isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Engram could benefit from decreased defensive attention as opponents focus on containing Waddle. Per Chad Jensen of SI.com, Engram seems to have earned more trust from Denver's coaching staff compared to his first year with the team, and the veteran tight end enjoyed a strong minicamp in June. Rookie fifth-round pick Justin Joly was the most notable offseason addition to a Broncos tight end room that also includes Adam Trautman, Nate Adkins and Lucas Krull.
Verdict
vs 30.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
23.4 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 25.6 · L10 26.4 · med 20.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 12.0 · ceil 42.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 30.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 |
Situational splits
Over 30.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home45%5/11Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
J.K. Dobbins out+4.6 REC YDS when he sits
Without (8g)
31.5 REC YDS
50% over 30.5
With (8g)
26.9 REC YDS
50% over 30.5
Last matchup — vs NE
Jan 25, 2026
11thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
NE allows 28.2 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 39 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Evan Engram has gone over 30.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 11th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (28.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 18.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.