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Dallas CowboysGeorge Pickens
#3 · WR · 6' 3" · 200 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 95.2 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutGeorge Pickens isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Pickens has voiced his willingness to play on the one-year franchise tag, so Wednesday's deadline passing without a new contract doesn't come as a surprise. Playing for a long-term deal or future free-agency payday should only reinforce his fantasy appeal as one of the top downfield and red-zone targets for Dak Prescott (knee), and alongside CeeDee Lamb, Pickens again will form one of the top one-two punches at wideout in the NFL. The Cowboys managed Pickens' reps at mandatory minicamp in June, but by all accounts he will have no limitations at the start of training camp other than a normal ramp-up period.
Verdict
vs 80.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency29argues against it
Projection
83.2 REC YDS(×0.93 context)
L5 73.2 · L10 89.5 · med 80.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 68.0 · ceil 138.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 10/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 80.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 |
Situational splits
Over 80.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
Last matchup — @ WSH
Dec 25, 2025
4thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
WSH allows 49.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 53 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, George Pickens has gone over 80.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 4th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (49.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 40.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.