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Miami DolphinsGreg Dulcich
#85 · TE · 6' 4" · 245 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- UCLA
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 37.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutGreg Dulcich isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley suggested that Dulich could return for next week's joint practices with the Commanders. It thus sounds like the tight end will miss the rest of this week, but he's still well on his way to a role as Miami's top pass catcher at his position. Dulcich does have a worrisome history of hamstring injuries, so it'll be worth a closer look if the current problem turns out to be related. For now, the Dolphins merely consider him day-to-day.
Verdict
vs 40.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency40neutral
Projection
37.6 REC YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 38.8 · L10 37.9 · med 41.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 23.8 · ceil 48.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 40.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 40.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Last matchup — @ NE
Jan 4, 2026
11thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
NE allows 28.2 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 39 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Greg Dulcich has gone over 40.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 11th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (28.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 13.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.