Detroit Lions

Isaac TeSlaa Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Isaac TeSlaa has gone over 2.5 REC in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Arkansas
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 2.2 REC · our line

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OutIsaac TeSlaa isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

TeSlaa flashed touchdown upside as a rookie, finishing with 16 catches for 239 yards and six scores, including eight catches for 119 yards and two touchdowns over Detroit's final three regular-season games. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams remain Jared Goff's top two targets, with RB Jahmyr Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta also highly involved, but Kalif Raymond's departure gives TeSlaa a clear path to the No. 3 WR role. If TeSlaa's added strength and cleaner route breaks help him separate more consistently, he could take a step forward in Year 2 despite Detroit's crowded offense. Head coach Dan Campbell also praised TeSlaa's maturity during mandatory minicamp.

Verdict

vs 2.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line57neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

2.4 REC

L5 2.2 · L10 2.2 · med 2.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.6 · ceil 3.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 105 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 205 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Season5 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	80%	4/5
	80%	4/5
2.5Current	40%	2/5
	20%	1/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — REC per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%2/4Low

Last matchup — @ MIN

Dec 25, 2025

28thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

MIN allows 3.1 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 49 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 5 games, Isaac TeSlaa has gone over 2.5 REC 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 28th-most REC of 32 teams (3.1 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.