Loading…
Detroit LionsIsiah Pacheco
#10 · RB · 5' 10" · 210 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: Dec 26, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Rutgers
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 37.2 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 34.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 61% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency45neutral
Projection
38.5 RUSH YDS(×1.08 context)
L5 35.0 · L10 39.9 · med 35.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 26.0 · ceil 49.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 8/12 | ||
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 34.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 33% | 4/12 | ||
| 33% | 4/12 |
Situational splits
Over 34.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days55%6/11Low
Next matchup — vs NYJ
Sep 27, 2026
31stof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
NYJ allows 22.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Isiah Pacheco has gone over 34.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. NYJ has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 31st-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (22.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 12.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.