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Detroit LionsIsiah Pacheco
#10 · RB · 5' 10" · 210 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: Dec 26, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Rutgers
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 37.2 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutIsiah Pacheco isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Back Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Dec 28, 2026
Pacheco has been sidelined for the entirety of the regular season to this point after undergoing back surgery in September. Sione Vaki has been working as the Lions' clear RB2, though Jahmyr Gibbs has been a true workhorse out of the backfield. If Pacheco does return at the end of the regular season, it's hard to envision him having a big impact coming off back surgery.
Verdict
vs 34.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency45neutral
Matchup75supports it
Projection
39.9 RUSH YDS(×1.12 context)
L5 35.0 · L10 39.9 · med 35.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 26.0 · ceil 49.8
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 8/12 | ||
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 34.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 33% | 4/12 | ||
| 33% | 4/12 |
Situational splits
Over 34.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days55%6/11Low
Next matchup — @ MIA
Nov 8, 2026
11thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
MIA allows 51.6 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Isiah Pacheco has gone over 34.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIA has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 11th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (51.6 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 12.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.