Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy Completions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

J.J. McCarthy has gone over 14.5 CMP in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Michigan
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCompletions · season avg 14.6 CMP · our line

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OutJ.J. McCarthy isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

McCarthy and Murray continue to engage in what seems like one of the league's few true quarterback competitions. Head coach Kevin O'Connell has stated that he has a timeline in place to announce a starter, but what that schedule is hasn't been revealed publicly. A 2024 first-round pick, McCarthy missed his entire rookie season due to injury and then logged an up-and-down Year 2, throwing for 1,632 yards with an 11:12 TD:INT across 10 regular-season starts in 2025.

Verdict

vs 14.5 CMPCompletions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it

Projection vs line60neutral

Consistency71supports it

Projection

13.9 CMP(×0.95 context)

L5 14.6 · L10 14.6 · med 14.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 12.6 · ceil 16.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 109 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Last 209 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Season9 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)

CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CMP line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	89%	8/9
	78%	7/9
	67%	6/9
14.5Current	44%	4/9
	33%	3/9
	11%	1/9
	11%	1/9

Last 9 games — CMP per game vs. line 14.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 14.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%3/5Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%4/8Low

Last matchup — vs GB

Jan 4, 2026

11thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks

GB allows 20.9 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 18 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 9 games, J.J. McCarthy has gone over 14.5 CMP 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. GB has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 11th-most CMP of 32 teams (20.9 per game). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 2.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.