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Denver BroncosJ.K. Dobbins
#27 · RB · 5' 10" · 212 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Nov 7, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 77.2 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJ.K. Dobbins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Dobbins led the Broncos with 772 rushing yards across 10 regular-season games during the 2025 campaign, and he's likely to maintain a prominent role in the team's 2026 backfield mix, even with Denver having spent a second-round pick in 2025 on Harvey and a fourth-rounder this year on Coleman. Harvey is likely to get most of the pass-catching opportunities but averaged just 3.7 yards per carry in the 2025 regular season compared to Dobbins' 5.0, while the 5-foot-8, 220-pound Coleman may be the bigger threat to Dobbins' opportunities on early downs. The Broncos may opt to keep four running backs on the 53-man roster, with Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie battling for the final spot.
Verdict
vs 77.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency59neutral
Projection
76.4 RUSH YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 74.0 · L10 77.2 · med 78.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 62.6 · ceil 86.6
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 7/10 | ||
| 70% | 7/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 77.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 |
Situational splits
Over 77.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%5/9Low
Last matchup — vs LV
Nov 7, 2025
28thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
LV allows 41.8 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 40 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, J.K. Dobbins has gone over 77.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LV has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 28th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (41.8 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 19.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.