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Cincinnati BengalsJa'Marr Chase
#1 · WR · 6' 0" · 205 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 90.6 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJa'Marr Chase isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Chase finally struck for his first 100-yard effort of the campaign in Sunday's wild win, finishing with team-high reception and target totals, as well as runner-up status in receiving yards. Chase was also on the receiving end of one of Joe Burrow's five touchdown passes, corralling the first one of the day from 30 yards out early in the second quarter. Chase has now scored in three straight games, and after season-best totals across all three components of his receiving line Sunday, the All-Pro receiver will head into a Week 9 matchup against the Falcons in Madrid with no shortage of momentum.
Verdict
vs 77.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 22% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line22argues against it
Consistency49neutral
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
108.1 REC YDS(×1.15 context)
L5 90.6 · L10 90.6 · med 77.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 72.4 · ceil 106.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 77.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 77.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Next matchup — @ ATL
Nov 8, 2026
7thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
ATL allows 51.7 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 23 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 5 games, Ja'Marr Chase has gone over 77.5 REC YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 7th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (51.7 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 27.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 77.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.4%
Best Over
DraftKings-110
-5.3% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-114
-5.3% EV
Model vs market (over)+28.7%
Our model puts the over at 78.3% vs the market's no-vig 49.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (78 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.